AUD/USD Holds as RBA Hawkish Pivot Lingers

AUD/USD traded with a relatively contained tone on February 25, 2026, as markets continued to digest the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent policy shift back toward tightening. The RBA’s decision to lift the cash rate to 3.85% earlier this month reinforced the view that Australian policymakers remain concerned about persistent inflation and capacity constraints, even as growth moderates. That backdrop has helped stabilize the Australian dollar by anchoring domestic rate expectations higher than previously priced at the start of the year.

On the U.S. side, the macro narrative remained centered on a resilient economy and a still-data-dependent Federal Reserve, keeping front-end rate expectations elevated and limiting sustained USD downside. With no major domestic data surprises out of Australia today, AUD/USD price action largely reflected relative policy trajectories: a cautiously hawkish RBA versus a Fed that is not yet signaling imminent easing, leaving the pair sensitive to shifts in global rates and inflation expectations rather than risk appetite alone.

AUD/USD Daily Price History

In the above chart, AUD/USD rates are retaining bullish pretenses following its breakout above the 2024 highs. Recent weeks have produced modest consolidation, but a lack of loss of momentum (Slow Stochastics still trending higher) suggests that bulls remain in control. The recent rebound off of the 21-day EMA (exponential moving average), with the entirety of the EMA envelope retaining positive rates of change relative to yesterday, reinforces the view that bears need to selective about opportunities lest they attempt to pick a top.

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