EUR/USD Trending Towards Range Lows
Diverging monetary signals and stronger U.S. economic news have kept EUR/USD under pressure as greenback strength offsets modest eurozone data.
EUR/USD is testing its five-week lows today around 1.1600 as a firm U.S. dollar and resilient U.S. macro news propped up the greenback in recent session. Stronger U.S. jobless claims (now below 200K) and other data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain patient on rate cuts, underpinning U.S. Dollar demand and limiting upside for the Euro. Broader risk sentiment was mixed, with European equity gains failing to translate into meaningful Euro strength.
In the Eurozone, inflation data showed price growth at target levels and the European Central Bank signaled a steady rate outlook, underscoring the impression that policy divergence with the U.S. persists. With limited top-tier Eurozone releases today and into next week, and the Federal Reserve entering its blackout window ahead of its January policy meeting, EUR/USD may be subject to broader trends rather than binary event risk tied to the pair itself over the coming sessions.
EUR/USD Daily Price History
In the above chart, EUR/USD rates have started to produce a potential turn in momentum. The uptrend from the January, March, and November 2025 lows has been breached, suggesting that a top may be forming. Recent price action likewise suggests that EUR/USD may be consolidating into a symmetrical triangle. Daily MACD is trending lower while Slow Stochastics are looking to re-enter oversold territory, a testament to bearish momentum. Likewise, each of the 5-day exponential moving average (EMA), 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day EMA having negatives rates of change. Contextually, these developments suggest the path of least resistance remains to the downside, with EUR/USD potentially favoring a test of consolidative range support closer to 1.1500.
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