Euro Pressured as Oil, Gas Rebound

Despite an intraday rebound, EUR/USD remained lower on Thursday as oil and gas prices pushed higher again, rekindling concerns about a prolonged energy shock and its impact on the Eurozone economy. The rebound in crude has reinforced the risk of imported inflation, a key vulnerability for the Eurozone given its reliance on external energy sources. That dynamic weighed on the Euro, while at the same time, the U.S. Dollar found support as markets leaned back into a more defensive posture amid renewed demand for liquidity. With the U.S. economy holding up relatively better and the Federal Reserve maintaining a steady stance, EUR/USD continues to reflect the asymmetric impact of the Iran-driven oil shock on the two economies. 

EUR/USD Daily Price History

In the above chart, EUR/USD rates are still holding near what has been confirmed as a critical inflection point. 1.1600 remains the fulcrum in the form of: the January 2026 swing low; and the uptrend from the August and November 2025 swing lows. Two-way price action in recent days continues to suggest a trend change has yet to occur. The structural path of least resistance remains: failure to retake 1.1600 keeps intact the possibility for a bigger flush towards 1.1400; a move above 1.1600 puts into play a false breakdown and a potential short-term bottom (inverse head and shoulders) that could pave the path for a move towards 1.1900. 

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