USD/JPY Hits Yearlong Highs. Is Intervention Imminent?

USD/JPY is trading higher today as market attention has shifted sharply to the U.S. jobs report released this morning. December payrolls came in softer than expected, with just 50,000 jobs added, reinforcing a view that the Federal Reserve doesn’t have enough information just yet to push ahead with another rate cut. Despite the weaker job gain, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.4%, giving the U.S. Dollar support and lifting the currency against the Japanese Yen.

On the Japan side, uncertainty around the Bank of Japan’s next steps continues to weigh on the Yen. Recent commentary from BOJ officials suggests caution on further tightening even as domestic consumption trends improve, which reinforces the policy divergence with the United States and keeps the Yen under pressure. With broader risk sentiment stable and the greenback finding bids on U.S. macro data, USD/JPY remains elevated as traders digest today’s labor figures and await further cues on monetary policy – not to mention the increased risk of intervention due to the sharp deterioration in the Yen’s standing.

USD/JPY Daily Price History

In the above chart, USD/JPY rates have pushed through the November and December highs, maintaining their steep uptrend from the October and December swing lows. The move to test the 2025 high at 158.88 is gathering pace, with 5-day exponential moving average (EMA), 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day EMA having positive rates of change. A move through the 2025 high and into the 160s could precipitate greater chatter, if not outright intervention, from Japanese officials about intervention.

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