Central Bank Watchlist: April 2026 Meeting Expectations

Key Points

• Forex markets are still trading with one eye on the Middle East, but the next source of volatility may come from policymakers rather than the battlefield.
• As long as inflation remains sticky, the Fed and other major central banks may have limited room to pivot—and that could provide continued support for the US dollar.
• Growth remains subdued, which adds another layer of caution to the policy outlook, and could revive the dollar’s safe-haven appeal if fears of a global recession intensify.

A tenuous ceasefire in the Middle East has taken some of the edge off forex markets. But traders are still reacting to shifts in the tenor of the talks, and that is keeping price action jagged across the major pairs.

The immediate focus now shifts to a crowded stretch of central bank meetings in late April, which could influence the next phase of trading in global currency markets. Here’s how the central bank calendar lines up:

• Bank of Japan (April 27)
• Federal Reserve (April 29)
• Bank of Canada (April 29)
• European Central Bank (April 30)
• Bank of England (April 30)
• Reserve Bank of Australia (May 4–5)
• Banco de México (May 7)
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand (May 27)
• South African Reserve Bank (May 28)
• Swiss National Bank (June 17–18)

With the Federal Reserve widely expected to hold rates steady at its April 29 meeting, the market is likely to focus less on the decision itself and more on the messaging around it. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of April’s key meetings and consider how each could shape the major currency pairs.

Current expectations for upcoming central bank meetings

Federal Reserve (April 29): The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its April 29 meeting, so the real focus may be less on the decision itself and more on how policymakers frame the outlook into summer, especially with the next meeting set for June 17. If the message suggests inflation remains a concern and rates may need to stay restrictive for longer, that could help keep the dollar supported, especially in a pair like USD/JPY. If the tone is more dovish, that could leave the dollar more vulnerable to weakness.

Bank of Japan (April 27): The Bank of Japan had been shaping up as one of the key central bank events on the calendar this month, but that focus has cooled somewhat. Nikkei Asia now reports that the BOJ is likely to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the April 27–28 meeting, as policymakers take more time to assess the economic effects of the Middle East conflict. If that is how the meeting plays out, the focus will shift to June, where a potential rate hike will be back in play.

Bank of Canada (April 29): The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, but the focus will be on whether policymakers begin to lean more hawkish. With inflation ticking higher on energy prices, the key question is whether the Bank signals that a rate hike could come into play in the coming meetings, or whether it remains comfortable staying on hold. The updated Monetary Policy Report and Governor Macklem’s guidance should help clarify that path.

European Central Bank (April 30): The European Central Bank is expected to hold rates steady in April, with attention already shifting to what comes next. ING notes that policymakers are leaning toward “full optionality,” keeping their choices open as they weigh rising inflation risks against a softer growth backdrop. That leaves a potential rate hike “live” for the June 11 meeting, while also leaving EUR/USD sensitive to shifts in geopolitical sentiment rather than driven purely by rate differentials.

Bank of England (April 30): The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 3.75% on April 30, leaving June 18 as the next key meeting on the calendar. Whether a move is “live” by then will likely depend on both the path of the Iran conflict and what the next round of inflation and growth data reveal. That leaves GBP/USD highly sensitive to BoE messaging, incoming macro data, and geopolitical developments.

The policy calendar does not stop with late April. Early May brings the Reserve Bank of Australia on May 4–5 and Banco de México on May 7. Later on, traders will also be watching the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on May 27, the South African Reserve Bank on May 28, and the Swiss National Bank on June 17–18, alongside the major central banks that will return to the spotlight in June.

What This Could Mean for Key Currency Pairs

With the above in mind, the next question is how this backdrop may filter into the major pairs—and where the key levels now sit heading into these meetings.

For EUR/USD, the rebound has been impressive, even if the pair has now backed away from its recent highs. After dropping toward 1.14 during the peak of the geopolitical stress, the euro rebounded above 1.18 and briefly touched 1.1840. Since then, doubts around the latest round of talks have pulled EUR/USD back below 1.17, with the pair now trading around 1.1690.

That leaves it in an interesting spot heading into the central bank meetings. A hawkish tone could set up another run toward 1.18 and possibly beyond, while the 1.1590 to 1.1610 zone now stands out as the key downside area to watch.

For USD/JPY, the pair remains near the upper end of its broader range, trading around 159.50. That keeps the April 27–28 BOJ meeting important, even if expectations have shifted toward a hold. Over the last several months, USD/JPY has mostly traded within a fairly well-defined 153 to 160 band, with Japanese officials repeatedly raising the possibility of intervention near the top end. For now, 157.35 remains an important downside marker, while any move toward 160 or above would likely bring intervention risk back into focus.

For GBP/USD, sterling had also rebounded, briefly trading as high as 1.3575. But with the latest round of talks now in question, the pair has slipped back to around 1.3480. Before the conflict intensified in late February, GBP/USD had been trading above 1.38. In terms of levels, 1.3420 stands out as the key nearby support area, while a move back into the 1.35 to 1.3575 zone looks plausible if war risks ease and sterling regains momentum.

For USD/CAD, the move has been more measured than in some of the other major pairs, with the pair currently trading around 1.3680. That is well below the recent war-driven high near 1.3950, though still comfortably above the lower end of the broader six-month range. In other words, some of the geopolitical premium has faded, but USD/CAD has not broken decisively lower. From here, 1.35 stands out as the key downside level, while the 1.3730 to 1.3770 zone is the first upside area to watch if USD regains traction.

Beyond Central Banks: Inflation, Eastern Europe, and Economic Growth

Looking past specific central bank decisions, traders still need to keep an eye on the broader forces shaping the market. If any of those forces shifts in a meaningful way—whether it is inflation, developments in Eastern Europe, or the direction of global growth—it could quickly move back to the forefront and ripple through currency markets.

Inflation is one of the clearest examples. If higher energy prices continue to feed into consumer prices, central banks may feel less able to ease policy or sound too relaxed about the outlook. That matters because interest-rate expectations are a major driver in forex. A stickier inflation backdrop can help support currencies tied to central banks that are expected to keep policy tighter for longer, while softer inflation can have the opposite effect.

Eastern Europe is another issue that could regain market attention if tensions in the Middle East continue to cool. Forex markets do not just react to economic data—they also react to global risk. If conditions in Eastern Europe worsen, traders may move more quickly into defensive positions, which can support traditional safe-haven currencies and pressure more risk-sensitive ones. If conditions stabilize, that effect can fade.

Growth matters as well, because central banks are still trying to balance inflation against the risk of slower economies. If economic data begin to weaken more noticeably, markets may start to expect a softer policy path later in the year. If growth remains resilient, central banks may have more room to keep rates elevated. In currency markets, that can shape which currencies look relatively stronger or weaker as investors compare one economy to another.

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