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5 economic events you don't want to miss: 05/22/23

At the start of every trading week, we comb the upcoming economic calendar for the highest-impact items in the world. Find out what’s coming up next.
Source: Bloomberg
Picture of Frank Kaberna
Frank Kaberna
Director of Strategy, Chicago

Economic calendar summary

Major data releases are mainly coming out of the US this week with FOMC Minutes, PCE Price Index, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Given the recent bull run for USD, these measures could have an effect on the US dollar trade versus major currencies such as the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen.

New Zealand and the UK will also release some important economic data, and both markets have witnessed relatively strong performance from their NZD and GBP compared to neighboring regions. An interest rate decision and inflation rate, respectively, could be cause for more strength or a new trend lower, especially when looking at AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP.

British pound has stayed relatively strong against the US dollar compared to the euro. Find historical prices for the GBP/USD forex pair. Source: tastyfx

Interest Rate Decision - New Zealand

Time: 11:00pm ET Tuesday, May 23rd

Previous: 5.25%

Expected: 5.50%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets this week to discuss the economy and potentially change their interest rate. New Zealand has been relatively aggressive with their rates - higher than Australia and on par with the US - translating to NZD strength against AUD. Another hike could mean more strength while a hold might shock the market into falling against major currencies.

Practice trading economic events using a demo account

Inflation Rate - UK

Time: 2:00am ET Wednesday, May 24th

Previous: 10.1%

Expected: 8.2%

UK data has been relatively strong causing GBP to hold in better than EUR and JPY amid the recent USD resurgence. This week's inflation measure could be an important indicator of how strong UK data might be in the future as it is expected to fall almost two full percentage points. Stronger-than-expected inflation could be reason for more GBP strength, while a weaker number could cause it to start looking more like EUR.

FOMC Minutes - US

Time: 2:00pm ET Wednesday, May 24th

Previous: N/A

Expected: N/A

The Federal Reserve has been firm in its more hawkish stance the last several months in the face of fear coming from the US debt ceiling and regional banks. With those fears falling in the last week, traders could use the FOMC Minutes to decipher how many more interest rate hikes might be coming as well as how strong or weak the US dollar should be.

Core PCE Price Index - US

Time: 8:30am ET Friday, May 26th

Previous: 4.6%

Expected: 4.6%

The PCE Price Index is an inflation measure that the Fed monitors when setting interest rates. Along with CPI, PCE has been trending lower for the last year, and it's expected to hold unchanged this month. A surprise higher could spark higher interest rate projections and a stronger USD, while a lower-than-expected value could result in the opposite.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - US

Time: 10:00am ET Friday, May 26th

Previous: 63.5

Expected: 57.7

With the relationship between economic data and forex markets being relatively straightforward in recent weeks now that the effect of external events such as the US debt ceiling has diminished, a better-than-expected number from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment data release could be cause for US dollar strength. However, the expectation is lower, and USD could weaken if the number comes in at that level or below.

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