AUD/USD Slips as RBA Hike Meets 5% U.S. Yields
The Australian Dollar fell despite another RBA hike as surging U.S. Treasury yields and rising Fed hike odds kept the U.S. Dollar firmly in control.
AUD/USD traded lower on Tuesday even as the RBA unanimously raised the overnight cash rate by 25-bps to 4.60%, its fourth hike this year and the highest rate in roughly 15 years. The move was largely priced-in, leaving the Australian Dollar vulnerable to a sell-the-fact reaction. The RBA remains worried about persistent inflation, with core inflation around 3.6%, and kept the door open to additional tightening if price pressures fail to cool.
The bigger force today came from the U.S. side. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed towards 5.30% as markets assigned roughly 70% odds to another Fed hike in October, keeping the U.S. Dollar supported even after weaker consumer confidence and softer job openings. For AUD/USD, the message is straightforward: the RBA is hawkish, but right now the U.S. rates shock is more powerful.
AUD/USD Daily Price History
AUD/USD has broken the structure that carried the Australian Dollar higher through most of 2026. The pair has lost the rising trendline from the late-2025 lows, fallen back below the entire moving-average cluster, and is now trading under 0.7000. That is a significant technical breakdown. The September high near 0.7230 now looks like a failed breakout, and the sequence has shifted from higher highs and higher lows into a lower-high, lower-low setup.
The clean bearish setup is selling failed rebounds into 0.7000-0.7050. That zone now contains the broken trendline, prior support, and the moving-average cluster, so it should act as the first meaningful resistance area. If AUD/USD cannot reclaim that band, downside targets are 0.6920-0.6900 first, then roughly 0.6850. For bulls, the burden of proof is much higher. The Australian Dollar needs a daily close back above 0.7050 to suggest the breakdown was false. A move through 0.7100 would be the stronger signal that the chart has been repaired.
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