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BTC nears $75k. Is $100k next? What it means for S&P 500, USD, and gold.

Bitcoin's surge past $70k stirs market excitement, eyeing a $100k milestone. Explore its evolving correlations with US stocks, USD, and gold that are reshaping trading strategies.
Source: Bloomberg
Picture of Frank Kaberna
Frank Kaberna
Director of Strategy, Chicago

Data current as of 4/8/2024

Key points

  • Bitcoin breaks $70k, nears all-time high: (0:24)
  • BTC $100k within reach by end of 2024: (1:36)
  • Are S&P 500 bulls leading Bitcoin higher?: (3:58)
  • Is Bitcoin replacing US dollar?: (5:35)
  • Can Bitcoin become the next gold?: (6:53)

Bitcoin breaks $70k, nears all-time high

Bitcoin has surged past the $70k mark once again, closely approaching its all-time high of $74k hit in March. This rebound highlights the cryptocurrency's volatility and resilience, capturing the attention of traders eyeing potential for significant gains. Such movements are critical for forex traders who now increasingly consider Bitcoin’s influence on market dynamics and other asset classes.

BTC $100k within reach by end of 2024

With its current volatility rate at 67%, Bitcoin could see a significant move within the next year, potentially reaching or even surpassing $100k. Using a one-standard-deviation move, BTC could fluctuate up to +/- $48,240 in the next year. This projection could mean new all-time highs above $110k or a reversion all the way down towards 20k. Such a wide range of expectations highlights the unpredictable volatility of crypto we've observed since its inception.

Are S&P 500 bulls leading Bitcoin higher?

The correlation between the S&P 500, particularly technology stocks, and Bitcoin has historically been positive, suggesting that a bullish stock market could pave the way for Bitcoin’s value to rise. This relationship has been declining in recent months, however, as the current rolling 12-month correlation between the S&P and Bitcoin is under +0.25.

Is Bitcoin replacing US dollar?

As Bitcoin and the US dollar both hover near recent highs, the traditional negative correlation between them is showing signs of weakening - now close to 0 or completely uncorrelated. This shift prompts speculation about Bitcoin's role in the global financial system and whether it could challenge or complement traditional fiat currencies like the USD in the forex market.

Can Bitcoin become the next gold?

With Bitcoin and gold both achieving new all-time highs and showing a positive correlation, speculation grows around Bitcoin’s potential as a flight-to-quality asset, similar to gold. For forex traders, this emergent relationship suggests diversifying strategies may include considering Bitcoin alongside traditional safe-haven assets.

How to trade US dollar

  1. Open an account to get started, or practice on a demo account
  2. Choose your forex trading platform
  3. Open, monitor, and close positions on USD pairs

Trading forex requires an account with a forex provider like tastyfx. Many traders also watch major forex pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY for potential opportunities based on economic events such as inflation releases or interest rate decisions. Economic events can produce more volatility for forex pairs, which can mean greater potential profits and losses as risks can increase at these times.

You can help develop your forex trading strategies using resources like tastyfx’s YouTube channel. Once your strategy is developed, you can follow the above steps to opening an account and getting started trading forex.

Your profit or loss is calculated according to your full position size. Leverage will magnify both your profits and losses. It’s important to manage your risks carefully as losses can exceed your deposit. Ensure you understand the risks and benefits associated with trading leveraged products before you start trading with them. Trade using money you’re comfortable losing.

Reviewed by:
Glen Frybarger
Senior Content Strategist, Chicago

This information has been prepared by tastyfx, a trading name of tastyfx LLC. This material does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. You should not treat any opinion expressed in this material as a specific inducement to make any investment or follow any strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. This material does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. tastyfx accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. See our Summary Conflicts Policy, available on our website.