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EUR/USD moving lower on soft European data

After climbing post-FOMC, EUR/USD tumbles towards 1.0800 amid soft German manufacturing data and dovish BoE outlook. With 56% of traders long, market eyes future movements amidst US dollar strength and European economic concerns.
Source: Bloomberg
Picture of Frank Kaberna
Frank Kaberna
Director of Strategy, Chicago

Data current as of 3/27/2024

Key points

  • EUR/USD reversed towards 1.0800 after central bank meetings: (0:30)
  • Soft German manufacturing data shook confidence: (2:34)
  • Dovish BoE meeting boosted USD: (3:30)
  • How far could EUR/USD fall?: (5:52)
  • 56% of EUR/USD traders are long: (8:00)

EUR/USD reversed towards 1.0800 after central bank meetings

Last week, EUR/USD experienced a notable reversal, climbing above 1.0900 after Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, only to undergo a sharp decline in the subsequent days. This shift highlights the impact central bank decisions and geopolitical events can have on currency pairs, emphasizing the importance for traders to stay informed and agile in their strategies.

Soft German manufacturing data shook confidence

Confidence in the Euro took a hit when German manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reported a 5-month low on Thursday, signaling a deceleration in one of the Euro Area's key economies. This news contributed to the EUR/USD's decline, erasing the gains made after the FOMC. Such data points are crucial for traders to gauge the overall health of an economy and anticipate potential movements in currency valuations.

Dovish BoE meeting boosted USD

The Euro experienced further declines against the dollar following a dovish outlook by the Bank of England, which included warnings of impending rate cuts that might precede those in the US. This development bolstered the USD as market participants shifted their positions in anticipation of differing monetary policy paths between the US and UK, and affecting the neighboring Euro Area.

How far could EUR/USD fall?

Historical bounds for EUR/USD in the past year include prices as low as 1.0500 and as high as 1.1200 - both hit in 2023. This places the current 1.0800 level squarely in the middle of the range, giving reason for a move in either direction.

56% of EUR/USD traders are long

Current sentiment among tastyfx clients reveals that 56% of traders holding positions in the EUR/USD market are long, suggesting a prevailing belief in the Euro's potential to strengthen against the USD. This aggregate sentiment, derived from real-time trading data, offers insights into broader market trends, potentially indicating anticipated movements in the EUR/USD pair based on collective trader behavior.

How to trade EUR/USD

  1. Open an account to get started, or practice on a demo account
  2. Choose your forex trading platform
  3. Open, monitor, and close positions on EUR/USD

Trading forex requires an account with a forex broker like tastyfx. Many traders watch major forex pairs like GBP/USD and USD/JPY for potential opportunities based on economic events such as inflation releases or interest rate decisions. Economic events can produce more volatility for forex pairs, which can mean greater potential profits and losses as risks can increase at these times.

You can help develop your forex trading strategies using resources like tastyfx’s YouTube channel. Our curated playlists can help you stay up to date on current markets and understanding key terms. Once your strategy is developed, you can follow the above steps to opening an account and getting started trading forex.

Your profit or loss is calculated according to your full position size. Leverage will magnify both your profits and losses. It’s important to manage your risks carefully as losses can exceed your deposit. Ensure you understand the risks and benefits associated with trading leveraged products before you start trading with them. Trade using money you’re comfortable losing.

Reviewed by:
Glen Frybarger
Senior Content Strategist, Chicago

This information has been prepared by tastyfx, a trading name of tastyfx LLC. This material does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. You should not treat any opinion expressed in this material as a specific inducement to make any investment or follow any strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. This material does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. tastyfx accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. See our Summary Conflicts Policy, available on our website.