How strong is the US economy? 5 economic events that could provide an answer
Economic calendar summary
In the wake of last week's FOMC meeting, uncertainty remains around another 2023 rate hike. Powell indicated upcoming economic data will help make that decision - some of which arrives this week.
Core PCE price index will give the most accurate measure of US inflation on Friday, while GDP growth and durable goods orders earlier in the week will provide a more complete pulse check on the US economy. Fed Chair Powell also hosts a public discussion that could add insight on the Fed's opinion going forward.
Durable Goods Orders - US
Previous: -5.2%
Expected: -0.5%
New orders for durable goods sank to its lowest month-over-month reading in July since 2020 at -5.2%. Consensus opinion for August's reading is a more subtle decline of half a percentage lower. A higher-than-expected reading would signal resilience in the US economy while a low reading could cause worry of a more consistent downward trend.
GDP Growth Rate - US
Time: 8:30am ET Thursday, September 28th
Previous: 2.0%
Expected: 2.1%
The final Q2 reading for US GDP arrives Thursday, expected to be slightly higher than Q1 at 2.1%. The preliminary number came in at 2.4% before a revision to 2.1% in the second estimate. A further revision below 2.1% could mean a slowdown is approaching.
Fed Chair Powell Speech - US
Time: 4:00pm ET Thursday, September 28th
Previous: N/A
Expected: N/A
Fed Chair Powell will host a town hall with educators following the above data releases and prior to Friday's Core PCE reading. While primarily fielding questions, traders will hope to hear Powell's opinion on future events and the health of the US economy.
Inflation Rate - Euro Area
Time: 5:00am ET Friday, September 29th
Previous: 5.2%
Expected: 4.5%
The Euro Area flash inflation rate will provide an estimate on how European countries are handling inflation, as well as a comparison rate for the US who expects to have better metrics later in the morning.
Core PCE Price Index - US
Time: 8:30am ET Friday, September 29th
Previous: 4.2%
Expected: 3.9%
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge hovers at a critical level - Core PCE (YoY) has yet to dip below 4.0% this year. A reading under that benchmark will signal forward progress against inflation while a sticky reading above 4.0% may mean further monetary tightening is required.
How to trade economic events
- Open an account to get started, or practice on a demo account
- Choose your forex trading platform
- Open, monitor, and close positions on forex pairs
Trading forex requires an account with a forex provider like tastyfx. Many traders also watch major forex pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY for potential opportunities based on economic events such as inflation releases or interest rate decisions. Economic events can produce more volatility for forex pairs, which can mean greater potential profits and losses as risks can increase at these times.
You can help develop your forex trading strategies using resources like tastyfx’s YouTube channel. Once your strategy is developed, you can follow the above steps to opening an account and getting started trading forex.
Your profit or loss is calculated according to your full position size. Leverage will magnify both your profits and losses. It’s important to manage your risks carefully as losses can exceed your deposit. Ensure you understand the risks and benefits associated with trading leveraged products before you start trading with them. Trade using money you’re comfortable losing.
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