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S&P 500, Bitcoin near all-time highs on low US inflation rate

Lowering inflation in the US boosted stocks, and aligned with the recent surge in Bitcoin - nearing all-time highs. Learn the details from January's PCE report and how US dollar responded.
Source: Bloomberg
Picture of Frank Kaberna
Frank Kaberna
Director of Strategy, Chicago

Data current as of 2/29/2024

Key points

  • US stocks bounce back: (0:48)
  • Bitcoin’s rally continues past 62k: (1:31)
  • Inflation lowered as expected: (2:50)
  • Concern of higher rates kept at bay: (4:12)
  • Could USD gains be a flight to quality?: (6:33)

The recent release of US inflation data has spurred positive movements in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets, with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin nearing their all-time highs. This optimistic trend reflects investor confidence buoyed by manageable inflation rates and the anticipation of stable interest rate decisions in the near future.

S&P 500 and Bitcoin rally

The S&P 500 index continues to hover near its peak, with the latest trading sessions seeing it approach the $5100 mark, a figure just shy of its historical highs. This rebound showcases the resilience of US stocks and the positive sentiment dominating the equity markets. Similarly, Bitcoin's ascent past the $62,000 milestone underscores the cryptocurrency's enduring rally, bringing its all-time high within reach. Less than $5,000 away from its peak, the digital asset's performance highlights the growing investor appetite for alternative investments in the current economic landscape.

Inflation figures align with expectations

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key indicator of inflation closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, reported a Core PCE rate of 2.8% for January, aligning with market forecasts. This data release has appeased concerns over escalating inflation rates, suggesting a controlled economic environment conducive to sustained growth.

Interest rate outlook remains stable

Following the inflation report, market projections from CME's FedWatch tool for interest rates have remained relatively unchanged, preserving expectations for the first rate cut to occur in June. This stability in interest rate forecasts has alleviated fears of abrupt policy shifts that could destabilize market dynamics, indicating a cautious but optimistic monetary policy path ahead.

US dollar's appeal amid stable economic data

In forex markets, EUR/USD recently experienced a downturn, dropping below the 1.0800 threshold intraday. This movement can be attributed to the increased demand for the US dollar, possibly signifying a flight to quality as investors seek stability in light of encouraging US economic indicators. The greenback's strength in such an environment underscores its role as a safe-haven asset, attracting investment amidst global economic uncertainty.

As investors navigate these developments, the correlation between inflation data, interest rate projections, and market performance continues to be a focal point. The ongoing trends in the S&P 500, Bitcoin, and forex markets provide valuable insights into the broader economic sentiment, shaping strategies for traders and investors alike in handling the fluctuating financial landscape.

How to trade US dollar

  1. Open an account to get started, or practice on a demo account
  2. Choose your forex trading platform
  3. Open, monitor, and close positions on USD pairs

Trading forex requires an account with a forex provider like tastyfx. Many traders also watch major forex pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY for potential opportunities based on economic events such as inflation releases or interest rate decisions. Economic events can produce more volatility for forex pairs, which can mean greater potential profits and losses as risks can increase at these times.

You can help develop your forex trading strategies using resources like tastyfx’s YouTube channel. Once your strategy is developed, you can follow the above steps to opening an account and getting started trading forex.

Your profit or loss is calculated according to your full position size. Leverage will magnify both your profits and losses. It’s important to manage your risks carefully as losses can exceed your deposit. Ensure you understand the risks and benefits associated with trading leveraged products before you start trading with them. Trade using money you’re comfortable losing.

Reviewed by:
Glen Frybarger
Senior Content Strategist, Chicago

This information has been prepared by tastyfx, a trading name of tastyfx LLC. This material does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. You should not treat any opinion expressed in this material as a specific inducement to make any investment or follow any strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. This material does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. tastyfx accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. See our Summary Conflicts Policy, available on our website.